This blog post is inspired by a great TED Talk Conor Neill gave back in 2013, The Discipline of Finishing.
It’s one of those talks that sticks with you because the message is simple, uncomfortable, and true: the people who win are the ones you’d bet on to actually finish.
There’s a question I ask myself before making an investment decision:
If you could own 10% of one person’s future earnings, who would you choose?
Almost no one picks the “smartest” person they know.
Almost no one picks the one with the best credentials.
They pick the one they trust not to blow themselves up.
And that tells me something important about investing:
We think we’re betting on ideas. We’re actually betting on people managing those ideas.
A funny thing happens when you look at business failures through this lens. They rarely collapse because the idea was bad.
More often, the idea was fine; it just demanded a level of honesty, adaptability, or patience that the people in charge didn’t have.
Clay Christensen wrote about this years ago. Big companies didn’t fail because their managers were dumb. They failed because their managers were good at the wrong things. They listened too much to their best customers. They optimised margins. They doubled down on what worked yesterday.
All rational decisions. All is fatal in a changing world.
It’s one of the cruel truths of management: doing the “right” thing can be the wrong thing if the game has shifted.
And the game is always shifting, especially now with the rapidly shifting technological AI-driven world.
Warren Buffett says he filters people by three traits:
- Integrity
- Energy
- Intelligence
In that order.
The order matters.
A brilliant, tireless person without integrity is how accounting frauds happen.
An honest, brilliant person without energy is how competitors catch up.
An honest, energetic person without adaptive intelligence is how companies run confidently in the wrong direction.
But someone with all three, even if they don’t look impressive on paper, tends to figure things out. Not always quickly. But eventually.
And eventually, that is where compounding lives.
We’ve all seen the rare management team that, after missing guidance for a few quarters, doesn’t reach for excuses. No talk of “macro headwinds” or “temporary softness,” the corporate version of the dog ate my homework.
Instead, they say: “We were wrong. Here’s what we misjudged. Here’s what we’re changing. Here’s how you can measure us.”
It’s simple. Clear and honest management matters slowly… then all at once.
You can’t see management quality in a spreadsheet.
Spreadsheets don’t capture incentives, ego, adaptability, or fear.
Numbers tell you the story so far.
Management tells you the story to come.
And investing is a game played almost entirely in the future.
If you’re not comfortable with the management team, it’s best not to commit your money for the long term.
It’s not precise, but it’s directionally correct, like most useful things in investing.
The point isn’t that management explains everything. It’s that management explains more than most people want to admit.
Because it’s easier to tweak a model than to evaluate a human.
It’s easier to talk about the total addressable market (TAM) than temperament.
It’s easier to sound smart than to sit quietly and ask. Do I actually trust these people?
But investing rewards honesty over sophistication.
So here’s the simple invitation: before you buy the stock, bet on the visionary founder with integrity, energy and intelligence.
If you wouldn’t bet on them with 10% of your future, why would you bet on them with your money?
Everything else is just commentary.
And like most commentary, it matters less than we think.
Awet Ghirmay, Head of Investment Research
If you want to learn more about this topic, please find the link here.
More information about our fund can be found here: Hargreaves Lansdown or AJ Bell.
Risk warnings
The value of investments and the income derived from them may fall as well as rise. You may not get back what you invest. This communication is for general information only and is not intended to be individual advice. You are recommended to seek competent professional advice before taking any action. All statements concerning the tax treatment of products and their benefits are based on our understanding of current tax law and HM Revenue and Customs practice. Levels and bases of tax relief are subject to change. This blog is based on my own observations and opinions.
