I was thinking about that the other day while looking at how the biggest cloud companies are pouring something like $660 billion into infrastructure.
It feels like standing at the edge of a massive construction site—cranes everywhere, concrete pouring nonstop, everyone convinced they’re building the future.
But here’s the thing: not everyone pouring concrete ends up owning the skyline.
The quiet difference between strong and fragile
In moments like this—big technological shifts, big money flows—the gap between resilient and fragile businesses widens fast.
Resilient companies remind me of old, well-rooted trees. Storms come, winds shift, but they bend and adapt. They tend to have:
- something truly their own (data, tech, relationships)
- customers who don’t leave easily
- a role that’s deeply embedded in how work actually gets done
- cultures that evolve instead of resist
Fragile companies, on the other hand, are more like scaffolding—useful, temporary and easy to replace. Especially now, in an AI world, anything built on repackaging public information starts to look… disposable.
If your “product” is just rearranging what everyone else already has, AI will eventually do it faster, cheaper, and probably better.
What holds up when everything speeds up
The software businesses that seem most durable right now share a common trait: they’re hard to rip out.
Think about tools that:
- sit in the middle of critical workflows
- connect to everything else
- hold proprietary data that compounds over time
- operate in regulated or high-stakes environments
- uncopyable infrastructure
It’s less about flashy features and more about dependence. If a company disappears tomorrow and its customers panic, that’s a good sign.
The weaker ones? They’re often “nice to have,” not “can’t live without.”
Why leadership suddenly matters more
There’s a pattern you see in history—whether it’s the early days of the internet, mobile, or even railroads.
The companies that survive aren’t always the ones that start strongest. They’re the ones that adapt fastest.
Right now, the best management teams tend to:
- learn quickly (and admit when they’re wrong)
- stay close to their customers instead of chasing trends
- decentralised decision-making, so ideas move faster
- invest early in change rather than react late
It’s less about having the perfect plan, more about having the reflexes to adjust.
In a world shifting this quickly, standing still is its own kind of risk.
The uncomfortable truth about investing
There’s an idea that’s both simple and slightly unsettling:
“Most stocks don’t build wealth. A very small number do almost all the work.”
Over long periods, it’s not about owning more. It’s about owning the few that matter.
The temptation, especially in moments like this, is to chase headlines:
- the next AI winner
- the next big platform
- the loudest story
But history is pretty clear—real wealth tends to come from quieter places:
- durable cash flows
- pricing power
- businesses that evolve without breaking
And importantly, companies that benefit from big shifts like AI… without betting their entire existence on getting it exactly right.
A softer way to think about it
Maybe the goal isn’t to predict the one company that “wins AI.”
Maybe it’s simpler than that.
Own businesses that:
- can adapt
- can endure
- and can quietly compound while everyone else argues about the future
Because in the end, the skyline isn’t built by the loudest cranes. It’s built by the structures that are still standing years later.
And sometimes, the smartest move isn’t chasing the rush—
…it’s figuring out who still owns something valuable after the dust settles.
Awet Ghirmay, Head of Investment Research
If you want to learn more about this topic, please find the link here.
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Risk warnings
The value of investments and the income derived from them may fall as well as rise. You may not get back what you invest. This communication is for general information only and is not intended to be individual advice. You are recommended to seek competent professional advice before taking any action. All statements concerning the tax treatment of products and their benefits are based on our understanding of current tax law and HM Revenue and Customs practice. Levels and bases of tax relief are subject to change. This blog is based on my own observations and opinions.
