Since its inception in 1968, Stock Trader’s Almanac is now in its fifty-eighth edition under the stewardship of Jeffrey A. Hirsch has established itself as a pre-eminent financial reference for timing market entry, based on historical cycles and seasonal tendencies
Originating with Yale Hirsch and evolved by his son Jeff, this annual reference stands out for its calendar-style format, combining day-by-day alerts with retrospective data stretching back over half a century.
The 2025 edition, published in October 2024 by Wiley, remains widely cited among investment professionals and historians alike. It integrates market-tested strategies like the January Barometer and the Presidential Election Cycle along with seasonal signals such as the Santa Claus Rally and “Best Six Months” switch.
It even tags days of historically high volatility or strength, offering both a frame of reference and a toolkit for traders and long-term investors alike.
Below, we explore ten of the book’s most significant calendar patterns, unpacking their origins, historical performance, and relevance today.
1. January Barometer
What it is: A rule of thumb positing that the performance of the S&P 500 in January often forecasts the rest of the year: a positive January typically leads to a positive year, and vice versa.
Performance & Context: Historically robust between 1950–1984, a positive January preceded a full-year gain about 70% of the time, with negative January leading to declines nearly 90% of the time. Post-1985, predictive power was more modest, especially for negative outcomes.
Why it matters: It offers an early-year momentum check–point. However, like all patterns, it’s a helpful signal rather than an absolute forecast.
2. Santa Claus Rally
What it is: The tendency for the market to climb in the last five trading days of December and first two of January.
Performance & Origin: Yale Hirsch first noted it in 1972. Historically, the S&P has risen approximately 1.3% on average during this seven-day window, with gains occurring around 76% of the time.
Market Insight: A strong rally during this period is often regarded as a positive signal for the quarter ahead, although occasional breaks to the trend warrant caution.
3. “Best Six Months” Switching Strategy (Sell in May…)
What it is: A seasonal rotation strategy recommending investment in equities from November to April, then shifting to cash or bonds from May to October.
Track Record: Since the mid-20th century, this approach has often delivered stronger returns over winter than summer, statistically justifying the phrase “Sell in May and go away”.
Modern Context: While winter tends to outperform, exceptions occur so savvy investors use trend indicators alongside traditional seasonality.
4. Presidential Election Cycle
What it is: The observation that the stock market tends to run stronger in certain years of the four-year US presidential cycle, especially the third and fourth years.
Performance: The 2025 Almanac notes that post-election years often bring above-average returns; historically, years 3 and 4 can yield the strongest market performance.
Investor Takeaway: Political timelines can influence growth patterns, which remain relevant for strategic exposure near presidential years.
5. Third Friday (“The Witch”)
What it is: A volatility signal marked in the Almanac calendar, referring to the third Friday of each month, known for spiked trading activity due to option and futures contracts expiry.
Why it matters: Traders should expect heightened movement on these expiry Fridays, making it an important consideration for options strategies or short-term trading.
6. Bull/Bear Calendar Icons
What they are: Days flagged with a bull icon signify a historically over-60% chance of a positive S&P day; bear icons denote a 60%+ likelihood of a negative one.
Usage: These visual cues are especially useful to align trading with short-term win-loss probability, supporting tactical entries or risk control.
7. First Trading Day Effect
What it is: The tendency for the first trading day of a month to exhibit a statistical bias, often upward.
Rationale: Linked to cash inflows from automatic investment plans or window-dressing by institutional investors.
Evidence: The Almanac highlights that historically, this effect has led to outsized gains relative to average trading days.
8. Holiday Season Patterns
What it is: The Almanac pays special attention to market behaviour in the days around major holidays, such as the Thanksgiving-to-Christmas window and flags these as opportunities or risk periods .
Why it matters: These periods can exhibit above-average liquidity or anomaly-driven trends, which seasoned professionals may exploit.
9. NASDAQ & Small-Cap Seasonality
What it covers: Focuses on the best-performing periods for smaller-cap indices, such as NASDAQ and Russell, often concentrated around quarterly earnings season and late-year rallies.
Performance Advantage: Smaller issues typically outperform during specific quarters, offering selective timing refined by seasonality.
10. Sector Rotation & Strategy Calendar
What it is: Beyond broad indices, the Almanac includes sector-specific seasonal charts and recommended allocation timing for sectors like energy, tech, and consumer staples.
Investor Benefit: Enables more precise strategy, allocating to sectors with favourable seasonal past performance while minimising exposure to underperformers.
Making Seasonal Patterns Work for You
The Stock Trader’s Almanac 2025 continues a long tradition of mapping market seasonality in a concrete, evidence-based manner.
These ten patterns showcase a blend of historically recurring trends, from the January Barometer to the Jan/May rotational strategy and the volatility around monthly contract expiries.
When used thoughtfully, these insights offer:
- Strategic Entry/Exit Windows: Aligning trades with seasonally strong or weak periods to potentially enhance returns.
- Calendar-Centric Planning: Embedding historical tendencies into portfolio frameworks can support risk-adjusted decisions.
- Risk Awareness: Pattern breakdowns, especially when combined with real-time indicators can avert missteps when anomalies occur.
In short, while no pattern guarantees market success, the Almanac equips investors with a historically grounded platform from which to add statistical edges whilst encouraging flexibility in the face of powerful trends.
Authorship and Acknowledgment
This article summarises the insights and seasonal patterns presented in Stock Trader’s Almanac 2025 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Yale Hirsch, and Hirsch Holdings, originally published by Wiley in October 2024. All analysis here is written in original language, integrating background research without quoting directly to maintain integrity and attribution.
Carl Roberts, Director
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